China has not replicated ASML, not just TSMC

Matching TSMC's fabrication process would not be enough on its own — the deeper chokepoint is ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography machines, which no other company or country has replicated.

Added: 7/23/2026

Details

Core information and root causes

"It's not that they have not replicated TSMC, they have not replicated ASML. That's the limiting factor." — Elon Musk, on The Dwarkesh Podcast

Advanced chip manufacturing depends on a single supplier's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Replicating a fab is one problem; replicating the equipment that makes leading-edge fabs possible at all is a much narrower, harder one.